Mortgage rates dip amid signs of a slowdown

Current mortgage rates

The 30-year fixed mortgages in this week’s survey had an average total of 0.29 discount and origination points. Discount points are a way for you to reduce your mortgage rate, while origination points are fees a lender charges to create, review and process your loan.

Monthly mortgage payment at today’s rates

The national median family income for 2023 was $96,300, according to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, and the median price of an existing home sold in March 2024 was $393,500, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Based on a 20 percent down payment and a 7.23 percent mortgage rate, the monthly payment of $2,143 amounts to 27 percent of the typical family’s monthly income.

Will mortgage rates go down?

The possibility of declining mortgage rates keeps fading. Blame a still-booming U.S. economy, and stubborn inflation.

“We do not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range for the federal funds rate until we have gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent,” Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said May 1. “So far this year, the data have not given us that greater confidence.”

Earlier this month, the U.S. Labor Department said the inflation rate had picked up to a pace of 3.5 percent. That means it’s unlikely the Federal Reserve will cut rates any time soon. The central bank left rates unchanged in May — and the latest numbers showed the Fed seems to be losing ground in the inflation fight.

“Treasury rates and mortgage rates fell last week on the news of a slowing job market, with wage growth at the slowest pace since 2021, and the Federal Reserve’s announced plans to ease quantitative tightening in June and to maintain its view that another rate hike is unlikely,” says Mike Fratantoni, chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association.

To be clear, mortgage rates are not set directly by the Fed, but by investor appetite, particularly for 10-year Treasury bonds, the leading indicator for fixed mortgage prices. That can lead to intense rate swings — they soar on news of Fed hikes, then plummet in anticipation of a cut.

Mortgage rates are also chained to inflation, a metric the Fed has been moving to control. While most Fed members still expect three rate cuts this year, one regional Fed president now is predicting just one rate cut in 2024.

Loan applications rose 2.6 percent this week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, while home prices remain elevated. While NAR reported an uptick in inventory in March, many markets still don’t have enough listings.

• Methodology

  The Bankrate.com national survey of large lenders is conducted weekly. To conduct the National Average survey, Bankrate obtains rate information from the 10 largest banks and thrifts in 10 large U.S. markets. In the Bankrate.com national survey, our Market Analysis team gathers rates and/or yields on banking deposits, loans and mortgages. We’ve conducted this survey in the same manner for more than 30 years, and because it’s consistently done the way it is, it gives an accurate national apples-to-apples comparison. Our rates differ from other national surveys, in particular Freddie Mac’s weekly published rates. Each week Freddie Mac surveys lenders on the rates and points based on first-lien prime conventional conforming home purchase mortgages with a loan-to-value of 80 percent. “Lenders surveyed each week are a mix of lender types — thrifts, credit unions, commercial banks and mortgage lending companies — is roughly proportional to the level of mortgage business that each type commands nationwide,” according to Freddie Mac.